Even when there are comparatively few cars on the road, as on a recent Sunday afternoon at Rockville Pike and Wootton Parkway, cars dominate the streetscape in large swaths of DC's suburbs. (Photo by Chris Kain)

Gordon Chaffin: Cars still dominate DC’s suburbs — and our policies need to recognize that

By Gordon Chaffin On May 21, 2019 Last updated May 21, 2019

Beyond the Beltway, just a few miles from the last Metrorail stations — and even in pockets within that bubble — commuting by car dominates the DC region. These suburban and exurban areas feature most of the new, affordable housing in the area. Suburban communities are designed to double down on the region’s 80 percent to 90 percent car commuting status quo. To address the many policy challenges facing the Washington region’s suburbs and exurbs, multimodal transportation advocates should look to the District itself as a model that sports a healthy mix of transportation options for commuters. Whether the urban model can be replicated in DC’s suburbs with the same results, though, is another story.

I recently wrote an article for my subscription newsletter Street Justice breaking down census data on proposed highway expansions in Virginia and Maryland. In my day-to-day reporting, I don’t frequent Washington’s outer suburbs. I depend on public transit, so getting to areas like Bowie or Annandale means a long Metro ride, followed by a long scooter ride from my home in Northeast DC’s Edgewood neighborhood. I do my best to cover the region, but admittedly don’t spend much time considering residents with lengthy car commutes. So, my mental picture of “the DC area” tends to overestimate the roles of public transit and active commuting options like cycling.

Here’s what census data from 2017 says about commuting in our area: 75 percent of the region’s 3.3 million workers drive alone or carpool to work. That proportion would be significantly higher if it weren’t for the 40 percent car-commuting stat from DC proper. The only other jurisdictions below the regional average are Arlington (67 percent) and the city of Alexandria (68 percent). Excluding those three areas with the bulk of the region’s Metrorail stations, more than 80 percent of greater Washington commutes by car.

Fairfax County, Falls Church and Prince George’s County each have 79 percent rates of car commuting; Montgomery County is at 75 percent. Meanwhile, in DC’s exurban counties — which built more housing over the past 20 years than did the closer suburbs — car commutes dominate nearly all of the new developments. As a result, 85 percent of Loudoun County and 87 percent of Prince William drives to work. In Frederick and Anne Arundel counties, that figure is 89 percent. With the District one of the region’s main job centers, many of those drivers are headed here.

In DC itself, we see a different picture: Though 34 percent of the city’s 375,000 workers commute alone in a car, almost as many — 33 percent — commute by public transit. Another 8 percent commute by “other means,” a group including the cyclists and scooter riders. And 13 percent in DC walk to work!

When transportation experts and stakeholders discuss coaxing commuters out of their cars, they talk mostly about public transportation and bikes. Those options are great, but the data in our region suggests a lower-hanging fruit: working from home.

Telework is already bigger than public transit in Prince William County (5.1 percent vs. 4.8 percent) and Fauquier County (7.7 vs. 0.8). Working from home is also more common than transit in Frederick County (5.1 vs. 3.0) and Anne Arundel County (4.8 vs. 3.0). In Fairfax County, telework and transit commuting is pretty much even: 6.6 percent vs. 6.8, respectively. Working from home is popular in DC proper and Arlington County (7.4 percent), Alexandria (5.9 percent) and Montgomery County (6.5 percent); it’s less common in Prince George’s County (2.8 percent). However, the high transit ridership in these areas — ranging from 14 percent to 33 percent — translates into more opportunity for public benefit from investment in transit compared to the areas farther from the urban core.

These census results are a mixed bag for folks worried about climate change and transportation sustainability. On one hand, there’s reason to be optimistic: The capital city is an exemplary place for multimodal commuting and provides convenient inspiration. Yet there’s also plenty to be frustrated about: in DC’s suburbs, even the ones with Metrorail, about 75 percent of residents are car commuters. In exurban counties with access to commuter rail — namely MARC and Virginia Railway Express — and express buses like the Fairfax Connector, 80 to 90 percent of people are still driving.

While DC itself may have a great mixture of commuting habits, unfortunately it’s not building much housing, even if the construction cranes in some areas make us think otherwise. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s highly touted plan for 36,000 units by 2025 would be so phenomenal as to beg skepticism as to whether it will really come to fruition. DC barely built that much over the 17-year period from 2000 to 2017. Having reported on housing and land use, I know limited housing construction is not an accident. It has been a deliberate policy choice with systems that defer too heavily to local residents who oppose change. While Washingtonians attend ANC meetings and bicker over aesthetics, developers in Fairfax, Loudoun and, increasingly, up-county Montgomery lay down hundreds of town homes in developments near the already congested roads.

Given the data on regional commuting patterns, I’m resigned to suggesting that government officials focus on climate change policies that don’t depend on convincing the majority of the region’s population to stop commuting by car. And given what I know of the death grip on existing on-street parking in the city and inner suburbs, I don’t foresee a grassroots effort strong enough to surmount opposition to projects that would dramatically alter older, existing neighborhoods. This is as true when talking about car-focused neighborhoods in North Arlington along Lee Highway as it is about NIMBYs in Ward 3.

At the speed with which our society must adapt to limit greenhouse gases to control the effects of climate change, I don’t think we should squander our time working on longer-term societal change — walkable urbanist evolutions just won’t happen quickly enough in either the suburbs or low-density areas of DC. Before we solve the traffic congestion problem, we need to mitigate environmental devastation by limiting car use and building walkable, infill housing.

To accomplish necessary short-term gains, I wish leaders throughout the Washington region would act boldly to limit the harm of default choices residents are making. To kick things off, that should include forcing solar panels onto every new home as California has done; buying electricity from 100 percent renewable sources; ensuring that every transit bus is 100 electric; and using vehicle registration and parking fees to make battery-electric cars cheaper to own than petrol variants. If we can’t fully tackle the problem of car commuting, we’ve got to get more creative to identify policy solutions that can have a real effect even without unrealistic expectations for wholesale changes in Americans’ behavior.

Gordon Chaffin is a reporter for Street Justice, a daily email newsletter covering transportation and infrastructure throughout the Washington region.