jonetta rose barras: Is DC Mayor Bowser executing a political feint?

Responding last week to a question asked during WAMU’s Politics Hour about her political intentions, Mayor Muriel Bowser declined to indicate definitively whether she will run for a third term: “I usually get into a campaign when I know I can focus on it, give it all I’ve got, and get to all the people across all eight wards. 

“So, that announcement and timeline is forthcoming,” she added. 

Later that afternoon, I received more than a half-dozen phone calls as people asked me what I thought she meant. The comment, I responded, was a political feint, designed to keep her opponents guessing as she figures out her next move. 

“She’s dealing with two huge issues facing us,” said Terry Lynch, a political operative and observer who has been involved in local affairs for more than 30 years. “She’s got to get the city over the spike in COVID-19. Homicides are up 30% and we have a new police chief.

“She’s also dealing with personal issues: Her sister just died from COVID-19, and she has an infant daughter,” continued Lynch. “I think after she has a handle with those things, the political decision will come.”

Hadn’t she already decided?

Last year, The Washington Post described Bowser as having a “broad grin” on her face when she told city employees “wait for the next seven years” at a January 2020 event. The implication was that she was running for a third time. Maybe that was yet another feint.

“That is all calculus. I’d be shocked if she doesn’t run given her lack of opportunities elsewhere,” said another political and government observer.

“At the end of the day, I think she is going to run,” said Lynch. “She has handled the pandemic so decisively. She handled President Donald J. Trump effectively and with grace.

“Her temperament and her abilities are well-suited for where she is; she seems like she’s got the right job for her,” added Lynch.

Back in 2007, when then-Mayor Adrian Fenty helped Bowser move from the perch of advisory neighborhood commissioner in Ward 4 to DC Council member, she was a political novice. I’ve had my criticisms, but I recognize this: Over the past 13 years, she has grown into a shrewd politician — jostling with the local legislature; being attentive to diverse constituencies with competing interests; smartly and openly battling a racist president and his congressional allies; strategically placing herself on the national political stage; and struggling against a pandemic that has nearly decimated DC’s once booming local economy. Further, she has maintained a small and tight kitchen cabinet that makes it difficult for her enemies or potential opponents to fully weaken her political power. 

In November 2019, coming off a virtually uncontested second-term reelection victory the year before, more than 50% of DC residents participating in a Washington Post poll said they would vote for Bowser if she ran a third time. That support came from an equal number of whites and Blacks. The majority of those surveyed liked the direction she was taking the city. 

A lot has happened since then — which could explain, partially, why Bowser is pivoting.

“Running for a third term is a difficult proposition for any official,” said Tom Lindenfeld, a veteran local and national Democratic political operative. He served as a consultant for Bowser’s first mayoral campaign; before that he had a similar role for former mayors Fenty and Anthony A. Williams.

“You come in with a certain degree of enthusiasm but that tends to dissipate over time,” continued Lindenfeld. “[Then] you get comfortable with the people you have around you and don’t supervise them as strongly as when you first started. 

“Atrophy sets in or [there are] mini-scandals that make that third time even more difficult,” added Lindenfeld.

I have been openly critical about the absence of innovation within Bowser’s administration and a preponderance of lackluster managers. Complicating that fact has been the steady departure of key personnel in recent months, including the city administrator, the police chief and the chief financial officer. Essentially, the Bowser-led executive branch has been dragging. Further, even before the pandemic, there were measurable indicators that the local economy, especially the retail sector, was losing its sparkle.

Truth be told, Bowser’s attention seems to have been divided the past two years. Her national ambitions have been on constant display. She jumped on the presidential bandwagon of former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg before anyone else; she served as one of his key surrogates, traveling around the country on behalf of his campaign. He, of course, dropped out of the race when his campaign failed to inspire. 

Then, Bowser turned to Democratic candidate Joe Biden when it appeared he would soon become the party’s presidential nominee. Despite her strong and vocal support, she has yet to be tapped for any high-level appointment. 

So what are her options?

“It’s quite hard for former mayors to figure out what to do,” explained Lindenfeld, recounting the history of Bowser’s predecessors: Marion Barry attempted to work for an investment company, before circling back to government. Sharon Pratt has been a government contractor; she now heads a political institute at the University of the District of Columbia. Williams landed a job as CEO and executive director of the Federal City Council, and Fenty has become a rainmaker for tech companies. Vincent C. Gray returned to the DC Council as the Ward 7 representative.

Finding a post as significant as being the head of a nearly $17 billion public corporation “isn’t the easiest thing in the world,” continued Lindenfeld.

“Today, the world is open to her — unless she runs and loses. If she loses, the shine comes off,” he added.

No one should underestimate Bowser, however. In 2014, when she decided to challenge then-Mayor Gray, many thought she couldn’t measure up — although he had been weakened by a campaign finance scandal that began in 2010 and hovered over his entire first term. She went on to secure the Democratic primary, winning the majority of white voters but losing the Black vote. 

In the general election, she faced independent at-large Council member David Catania. In that race, Bowser overwhelmingly won the Black vote while her share of the white vote dropped off significantly. That suggests she has the skills to adjust tactics to suit the occasion and come out the winner. 

There has been talk in political circles that Council Chairman Pro Tempore Kenyan McDuffie of Ward 5 may run for mayor. The name of Ward 6’s Charles Allen has also been tossed around as a potential challenger. But, at least according to one political operative, “neither of [those] two guys has what it takes.

“If [DC Attorney General] Karl Racine decides to run that would be a scary proposition for her,” added the operative.

Racine had filed papers in 2020 to run for a third term as attorney general. However, speaking recently at the University of the District of Columbia, he reversed himself, as first reported by Tom Sherwood of the Washington City Paper and WAMU’s Politics Hour. “I really think that two terms are enough,” Racine said. “There are other talented people who have a lot to add.”

He didn’t seem to rule out a run for mayor — except, not unlike Bowser, Racine has big ambitions. He was being vetted by the Biden administration for the job of chairman of the Federal Trade Commission.

Racine may no longer be in the running. There is only one more Democratic slot on the commission, according to reporting by Politico. A knowledgeable source told me earlier this week that likely won’t go to Racine, however.  If it’s true that the FTC is no longer a possible landing site, would that mean he will consider running for mayor? 

Racine seemed to cast the FTC appointment as still a possibility, in a response to an email in which I inquired about his future. “I have tried my best to not play the media angle, so I am not going to say anything about [the FTC],” he wrote

“As for DC, I love the AG job, and, quite honestly, have not made a firm nor final decision about remaining in the public sector or returning to the private side,” he continued. “Regardless, I fully intend to remain engaged in local matters, particularly those that concern our young people.”

Is anyone else dizzy from the doublespeak?

In 2018, Bowser ran essentially unopposed. If she ultimately decides to run for reelection, don’t expect a repeat of that scenario. Notwithstanding the praise she has received for sparring with Trump and his congressional allies and for managing the various demands of the health emergency and pandemic, many political operatives generally agree there is an opening for new leadership — even a yearning in some quarters.

“She’s vulnerable,” said one person I interviewed. “The only question is to whom. We don’t know that yet.”

Stay tuned. One reason for a feint is to force opponents to expose themselves. 

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jonetta rose barras is an author and freelance journalist, covering national and local issues including politics, childhood trauma, public education, economic development and urban public policies. She can be reached at thebarrasreport@gmail.com.