Press Release: Prolonged DC school disruptions will have major impacts on DC student achievement rates, according to new analysis

News Release — Education Forward DC and EmpowerK12

Press Contact:

Michelle Lerner

Washington, DC — If District of Columbia public school students do not return to school until the start of School Year 2020-2021, student proficiency rates could decline by more than 16 percent in English language arts and 10 percent in math, compared to the likely performance of students on next year’s PARCC assessment, according to a new analysis released today. A decline of this magnitude is the equivalent of some 15,600 fewer students reading on grade level and more than 9,800 fewer students performing on grade level in math, based on current student enrollment figures. 

How COVID-19 Could Impact DC Student Achievement, conducted by Josh Boots of EmpowerK12, finds that learning loss could be significant even if DC students in both DC Public Schools and DC charter schools return to their school buildings this school year:

	MATH PARCC 4+	Students on Grade Level	ELA PARCC 4+	Students on Grade Level
Most Recent 2019 PARCC Scores	30.5%	28,854	37.1%	35,098
Predicted 2021 PARCC Scores: No COVID-19 Disruption	34.0%	32,165	44.0%	41,625
Predicted 2021 PARCC Scores: April 27, 2020 Return	29.6%	28,003	34.9%	33,017
Predicted 2021 PARCC Scores: May 26, 2020 Return	26.6%	25,164	31.1%	31,314
Predicted 2021 PARCC Scores: August 30, 2020 Return	23.6%	22,326	27.5%	26,016

*Model assumes that distance learning will have limited effect due to uneven implementation and other challenges.

“Given the scale of what our students are facing, we must provide more resources and flexibility for our schools to overcome the learning loss so that all students, especially those furthest from opportunity, can thrive,” said Maura Marino, Chief Executive Officer at Education Forward DC. “We know that PARCC scores are just one look into student achievement, and the loss of full-time, in-school learning in art, music, history, science, physical education, and world language–as well as the unquantifiable social supports, from mentorships to internships–is unprecedented.”

“This public health crisis means we must make the difficult decision to close our buildings until it is safe for our students and community to return to learning in school,” continued Marino. “But the educational gaps that every family and school are facing means we must be bold in how we support every DC student both now and especially when students return to school.”

The analysis also finds that economically disadvantaged students and students with disabilities are likely to experience more learning loss than their peers. Every school day lost has a negative impact on students, according to Boots.

“For every day of lost instruction in math, the probability that a student meets annual PARCC growth expectations in math drops by 1 percent” said Josh Boots, Founder and Executive Director of EmpowerK12. “And for every three days of lost ELA instruction, the probability in ELA drops by 2 percent. If students do not return to school this year, they will have lost 60 full instructional days.”

Schools, teachers, and families have made great strides to make distance learning happen during this crisis. But not being in school with full-time learning, surrounded by dedicated educators and staff, and provided social-emotional supports will have a lasting impact on a generation of students. 

EmpowerK12 created this analysis based DC student achievement data, as well as research on summer learning loss and school closures due to natural disasters, such as Hurricanes Harvey and Katrina. The model looks at six elementary and middle schools across four wards with achievement and growth data that mirror the citywide averages.

Analysis and Factsheet: How COVID-19 Could Impact DC Student Achievement

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Education Forward DC works to advance quality and equity in DC public schools and is committed to doubling the number of underserved students in Washington, DC in five years who are college and career ready, with a particular focus on at-risk and special education students.

EmpowerK12 empowers education leaders, including principals, support organizations, and policymakers, with the right information, relevant skills, and proper systems needed to continuously improve educational institutions.